Why Apple should buy facebook / Tyler Homes

Why Apple should buy Facebook

Such a deal would let the social network's investors cash out at something close to what they were expecting.

The biggest "tell" in what was otherwise a pretty boring Apple WorldWide Developers Conference Monday came during the iOS6 portion of the presentation, when Apple (AAPL +0.23%) announced full integration with Facebook (FB +0.37%).

Unlike most of what happened at the event, this went beyond what was rumored. A system for letting developers integrate their own apps with Facebook is also coming out, and it's now accessible directly from inside the App Store.

All of which got me to thinking:

At its Monday close Facebook is now worth "just" $58.4 billion, a long way from the estimated $100 billion figure talked about before the IPO. It's still pricey -- a price/earnings ratio of 87 -- thus unlikely to hit those heights any time soon.

Some of the investors who came in before the initial public offering, who could sell their shares once the "lockup" period expires, are either underwater or may perceive themselves to be.

Apple still lacks a social network. Its "cloud" is not a cloud at all, but a data center.

Facebook has been building a real cloud, using open source tools, for some time and it has engineers who really understand the need to save money on cloud installations if you want them to last.

My guess is Facebook's investors would jump at a bid of $80 billion. That's a huge premium from the current price.

As of March, Apple had a cash hoard estimated at $97.6 billion. It's continuing to accumulate cash, and its plans for a dividend are not expected to make a significant dent in the hoard. The company's market cap is $534 billion.

So Apple could easily do a half-cash bid for Facebook, acquiring a fast-growing asset with significant cloud presence for less than one-tenth its common stock and less than half the cash it has on hand.

Apple's biggest problem is that, insofar as its cash flow is concerned, it's mainly a manufacturing company. That's where its money comes from. That's where its growth comes from. That's why it sports a P/E of "just" 14.5 as against more than 17 for Google (GOOG -1.05%).

Facebook is everywhere Apple isn't. It has a big lead over Google in social networking, and in terms of raw cost may become close to competitive in cloud. (Its assets are newer, thus there may be some efficiencies there.)

Selling to Apple would let Facebook's investors cash out at something close to what they were expecting. Mark Zuckerberg would go from having about $1 billion in cash to much more. Apple CEO Tim Cook could negotiate enough autonomy to make the move seriously interesting. Facebook would give Apple the advertising presence it lacks, and this is a deal only Apple could do so there is unlikely to be a second bidder.

It may be about the only really big thing Apple could do that wouldn't draw scrutiny from the U.S. Justice Department, because the two companies are in completely different businesses. And that problem of Facebook lacking a mobile strategy? Solved.

What is most disappointing to Apple bulls is how "normal" a company Apple has become under Tim Cook. It is, as I wrote last year, like Elvis being replaced with Jackson Browne. It is evolving into just another big tech, on a larger scale than anyone could have imagined at the start of this century but, still, just another big tech.

Buying Facebook would instantly make Apple younger, it would give Apple an ad presence, it would give Apple a better cloud story. It would give Facebook cash, access to capital and a real shot at competing with Google, which is currently more than two times its size in terms of market cap.

People call Zuckerberg the new Steve Jobs. When the mothership in Cupertino is ready for occupancy, he will have been trained to take over the bridge. He'll still be in his 30s when Cook is ready for retirement.

Tyler Homes / Shy Shinalt

903.533.8114

Tyler Homes

Low Inventory Helps Push Prices


Already home prices are turning up. Though many economists have been calling for no price gains or only very minimal gains over the next several years, a surprise upside looks to be quickly developing.
First, let’s review the data. NAR’s median price of all homes transacted in April showed a monthly gain of 7.6 percent. However, the median price is not a good reflection of genuine price appreciation of a person’s home because it is influenced by which types of homes are getting sold during that period. If only the upper-end is moving, then the median price will be high. If only the lower-end, then the median price will be low. Also, April is the time when families with children start to buy and they typically purchase a larger-sized home that tends toward the higher price points. The median price, though it may not genuinely reflect an appreciation of a person’s home, is nonetheless vital information for computing GDP contribution from home sales.
There are many price indices that try to measure the price appreciation of a typical person’s home. All have slightly different computation methods. But all are beginning to say the same story: that the worst is over and the prices are stabilizing or rising. The following table shows home price changes in the latest available month and what it would be if the monthly gains can be sustained over the next 12 months.

REALTORs® well understand that all real estate is local. Unlike commodities that can be easily shipped to any place, one cannot simply lift a home in Detroit and fly it over to San Francisco to exploit a price arbitrage. Local market variations therefore clearly exist, which REALTORS® need to explain to their clients.
Note that the latest available data is not June, the current month, because of the lag time in data collection process. It is worth noting that home price has an additional special lag that arises from the nature of the home buying process. The March data, for example, was the price negotiated and agreed to in November or December, if not earlier. So the most current house price information that is being flashed across newspapers and TV screens actually reflects what happened six or more months ago, when inventory conditions could have been measurably different than conditions now.
What is occurring now is that inventory shortages are developing in increasingly more markets. The total number of homes with a ‘for sale’ sign in April was 2.54 million. This figure is the lowest April tally since 2005. Recall that the housing market was booming and bubbling in 2005. We are not in a boom because one important difference between now and then is that housing demand is about one-third lower. Nonetheless, the current supply and demand dynamics is such that we are essentially back to normal. Historically 6-months supply of inventory is the norm and that is what we have been consistently experiencing for several months. Because the total inventory count do not measurably rise from April levels as we proceed through the rest of the year, the 6-months supply will stick and a 5-months supply is not out of the question. Such conditions imply home prices will be rising 3 to 5 percent annually.

In addition to the falling inventory of existing homes, there is a dearth of newly constructed home inventory. The latest is only at 146,000 new homes for sale, it is at the lowest since the data was collected 50 years ago. The difficulties in obtaining construction loans by small-sized homebuilders are restraining growth in the industry despite the falling inventory conditions. The big builders like Lennar and Toll Brothers can issue bonds and tap Wall Street capital, but not the small homebuilders. The current rate of housing starts is less than half of historical annual average, and this low construction activity has been persistent from late 2008. Therefore, the pipeline of new home inventory is already very thin and is not filling in any notable way. This lack of new home construction will also play a bigger role in lifting home prices faster for at least the next 2 years than most analysts expect.

Finally, what about the shadow inventory – those homes not yet on the market but that will surely land there given the large number of delinquent mortgages. There is clearly a shadow, but the current number of seriously delinquent mortgages (at least 3 months late or in foreclosure process) is smaller than what it was one year ago. One year ago, the shadow was smaller than two years ago. In other words, even the shadows are no longer a threat to home price growth. Based on steadily thinning out delinquent mortgages, the number of distressed property sales will fall to about one-quarter of all transactions by the year end from the current one-third. This time next year, distressed sales could comprise maybe only 15 percent. Therefore, the falling share of distressed sales over time will be another factor that lifts home prices. There is no reason to shop for a shadow inventory costume for next Halloween because it is no longer scary.
In my view, the absolute low point in home prices has already passed in many markets. Home price measurements, due to lag time, will confirm that in the upcoming months. But given the rock bottom low mortgage rates and continuing low home prices, it is still a dandy time to be a homebuyer.


Shy Shinalt
Keller Williams Tyler
903.533.8114

Price drops driving real estate sales spike

Buyers remain worried about financing, further price declines

Home prices vs. sales image via Shutterstock.

Growth in home sales appears to be driven by the willingness of sellers to lower their prices rather than a broad-based increase in demand and buyer confidence, according to an analysis by real estate data and analytics firm Radar Logic Inc.
In "Housing is a Buyer's Market," the company analyzes price and sales trends in the nation's 25 largest metro areas.
Sales of nondistressed properties increased last year, but that increase was accompanied by a decline in prices -- lowering the price spread between distressed and nondistressed sales, the report said.

"Insofar as sellers are willing to accept lower offers, housing is currently a buyer's market," the report said. "Unfortunately, difficulty in accessing financing and concerns over inventory are preventing buyers from entering the market in force."
Although the National Association of Realtors reported that there was only a 6.1 months' supply of existing homes for sale in January -- the lowest level of inventory since 2006 -- that doesn't take into account vacant homes held off the market, homes securing delinquent mortgages and in the foreclosure process, and homes with underwater mortgages, the report said.

Shy Shinalt
Keller Williams Tyler
http://www.shyshinalt.com/

We offer our services in The Cascades, Cascades Tyler, Golf Resort, Country Club, Spa, seller financing, mansion, estate home, restrict, Home, listings, real estate, for sale, new condo, townhouse, agent, broker, mls, relocation, Tyler, Texas, lot, land, buyer, seller, Coldwell banker tyler, century 21 tyler, Tyler Real Estate, Flint Real Estate, Whitehouse Real Estate, Bullard Real Estate, Chandler Real Estate, Lindale Real Estate, Arp Real Estate, Lake Palestine Real Estate, Tyler Homes, Tyler Properties, Tyler Realtor, Tyler Real Estate Agent, Tyler, Flint, Whitehouse, Bullard, Chandler, Lindale, Arp, Lake Palestine, Smith County, real estate sales, buyer broker, buyers agent, Real Estate, multiple listing service, condo, condo conversion, townhouse, 1031 tax exchange, prequalification, mortgage loans, home locator, investment homes, investment properties, relocation specialist, residential, real, estate, residential real estate, houses, homes, Real Estate, estate homes, fine homes, multi-million dollar estate homes, multi-million dollar estates, foreclosure, reo, repo, bank repo, short sales, fixer, property, Realtor, Realtors, for sale, sale, buy, buyers, condominiums, townhomes, single family residence, view homes, duplex, duplexes, split levels, ranch style homes, single story homes, two story homes, RV access, pool homes, golf course view, ocean view, city lights view, nice neighborhood, era, we thank you very much for choosing Keller Williams

Texas real estate strong and stable heading into 2012

                          http://www.shyshinalt.com/

The Texas real estate market continues to show remarkable strength and stability, with a 6% increase in the number of homes sold in fourth quarter 2011 compared to the same time the year before. And, unlike many other states, prices have held steady, which bodes well for Texas buyers and sellers heading into the spring and summer

Shy Shinalt
Keller Williams Tyler Texas
http://www.shyshinalt.com/



Mortgage rates probe new lows

Eight out of 10 loan applications are for refis

www.shyshinalt.com

Mortgage rates plunged to new all-time lows this week as investors in bonds that fund most home loans reacted to news that the economy grew more slowly than expected during the last three months of 2011.

Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.87 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending Feb. 2, down from 3.98 percent last week and 4.81 percent a year ago. That's a new all-time low in Freddie Mac survey records dating to 1971.

Rates on 15-year fixed-rate loans averaged 3.14 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from 3.24 percent last week and 4.08 percent a year ago. Rates on 15-year loans have never been lower since Freddie Mac began tracking them in 1991.

For five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loans, rates averaged 2.8 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from 2.85 percent last week and 3.69 percent a year ago. That's a new low in records dating to 2005.

Rates on one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.76 percent with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week's record low of 2.74 percent. At this time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 3.26 percent.

"Most mortgage rates eased to all-time record lows this week as fourth-quarter growth in the economy fell short of market projections," said Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft in a statement. "The gross domestic product rose 2.8 percent in the final three months of 2011, below the market consensus forecast of 3 percent, while consumer spending in December was flat. One bright spot, however, was that fixed residential investment increased for the third consecutive quarter and residential construction spending rebounded in December, rising 0.7 percent."

Article continues below

Looking back a week, a separate survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed demand for purchase loans was down a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent during the week ending Jan. 27 compared to the week before. Demand for purchase loans was down 4.3 percent from the same time a year ago.

Requests to refinance accounted for 80 percent of all mortgage applications, down from 81.3 percent the week before.

"The Federal Reserve surprised the market last week by indicating that short-term rates were likely to stay at their current low levels until the end of 2014," said MBA chief economist Michael Fratantoni in a statement. "Longer-term Treasury rates dropped in response, and mortgage rates for the week were down slightly as a result."

Tyler Homes

Shy Shinalt

http://www.shyshinalt.com/

We offer our services in Tyler Tx homes,Ben Fitzgerald Real Estate Services, Tyler homes for sale, Tyler real estate, Tyler TX homes for sale, Tyler Texas homes for sale, Tyler houses for sale, Tyler houses, 'Tyler, Texas homes, real estate, residential, real, estates, homes, houses, TX, Texas real estate, for sale, sales, for, buyers, Smith County, County, property, properties, Realtors, ocean, city, homebuyers, househunt, land, condominiums, townhomes, townhouses, single family residence, golf, resorts, mountain, oceans, beaches, mls, lakes, condos, lots, vacation, realty, second homes, new construction, buy, agents, brokers, newer, older, luxury, large, huge, expensive, multi, million dollars, high, listing database, HomeFinder, Tyler, TX homes for sale, Tyler, TX properties, Tyler, TX real estate, Tyler Listings, Tyler FSBO Tyler, TX Homes for Sale & Real Estate | Homes.com, Pamela Walters offers Tyler Texas Real Estate, Tyler TX Real Estate, Tyler TX Real Estate For Sale, and more."><meta name="keywords" content="Tyler Texas Real Estate, Tyler TX Real estate, Tyler TX Real Estate for sale, real estate tyler tx, Cascades, we thank you very much for choosing Keller Williams

Tyler Homes

Mortgage rates plunged to new all-time lows this week as investors in bonds that fund most home loans reacted to news that the economy grew more slowly than expected during the last three months of 2011. Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.87 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending Feb. 2, down from 3.98 percent last week and 4.81 percent a year ago. That's a new all-time low in Freddie Mac survey records dating to 1971. Rates on 15-year fixed-rate loans averaged 3.14 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from 3.24 percent last week and 4.08 percent a year ago. Rates on 15-year loans have never been lower since Freddie Mac began tracking them in 1991. For five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loans, rates averaged 2.8 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from 2.85 percent last week and 3.69 percent a year ago. That's a new low in records dating to 2005. Rates on one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.76 percent with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week's record low of 2.74 percent. At this time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 3.26 percent. "Most mortgage rates eased to all-time record lows this week as fourth-quarter growth in the economy fell short of market projections," said Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft in a statement. "The gross domestic product rose 2.8 percent in the final three months of 2011, below the market consensus forecast of 3 percent, while consumer spending in December was flat. One bright spot, however, was that fixed residential investment increased for the third consecutive quarter and residential construction spending rebounded in December, rising 0.7 percent." Shy Shinalt Keller Williams Tyler www.shyshinalt.com

Tyler Texas Homes up for sale

                                 Are discount brokers good for the seller?

                                        www.shyshinalt.com

Are you really doing the right thing for your seller? Had an agent come to me this morning and we had a discussion on a home she just showed that was listed at a deep discount of 1% to the buyer’s agent. This is becoming more and more prevalent in the market today and while most feel it is a problem I feel it is something that will eventually blow up in the discounters face. After investigating the listing I came to a conclusion that the seller is being taken advantage of. You see our agent did the right thing and showed the home, but in the real world most agents would pass on this showing. I know we should show the home, but really why would another agent base their entire business plan on taking advantage of the entire real estate community? This home has already been on the market 180 days longer than any home in the neighborhood that sold in the last 2 years. Keeping in mind it’s a $550,000.00 home, that could be close to $ 30,000.00 in additional payments and taxes the seller has paid. That would be, ugh, 6% and it’s still not sold. Then take into account what negotiations might be like with a seller who is this “intelligent!” It reminds me of the saying;” a fool and his money are soon parted.” Or as W.C. Fields said, “they were lucky to get together in the first place!” Did the agent do the right thing? Clearly no, but when a seller uses a discount broker, they get what they paid for or dare I say deserve. In this case $30,000.00 in loses so far with no end in sight. http://www.shshinalt.com/

Shy Shinalt

Keller Williams Tyler ~ Shy

http://www.shyshinalt.com/

We offer our services in The Cascades, Cascades Tyler, Golf Resort, Country Club, Spa, seller financing, mansion, estate home, restrict, Home, listings, real estate, for sale, new condo, townhouse, agent, broker, mls, relocation, Tyler, Texas, lot, land, buyer, seller, Coldwell banker tyler, century 21 tyler, Tyler Real Estate, Flint Real Estate, Whitehouse Real Estate, Bullard Real Estate, Chandler Real Estate, Lindale Real Estate, Arp Real Estate, Lake Palestine Real Estate, Tyler Homes, Tyler Properties, Tyler Realtor, Tyler Real Estate Agent, Tyler, Flint, Whitehouse, Bullard, Chandler, Lindale, Arp, Lake Palestine, Smith County, real estate sales, buyer broker, buyers agent, Real Estate, multiple listing service, condo, condo conversion, townhouse, 1031 tax exchange, prequalification, mortgage loans, home locator, investment homes, investment properties, relocation specialist, residential, real, estate, residential real estate, houses, homes, Real Estate, estate homes, fine homes, multi-million dollar estate homes, multi-million dollar estates, foreclosure, reo, repo, bank repo, short sales, fixer, property, Realtor, Realtors, for sale, sale, buy, buyers, condominiums, townhomes, single family residence, view homes, duplex, duplexes, split levels, ranch style homes, single story homes, two story homes, RV access, pool homes, golf course view, ocean view, city lights view, nice neighborhood, era, we thank you very much for choosing Keller Williams